Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-What grade do the Padres get on their Juan Soto trades?

The Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank CenterSan Diego Padres hoped the acquisition of All-Star outfielder Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline would push them over the top in their quest for the franchise's first World Series title.

And with two full seasons before Soto could become a free agent, they paid a premium to get him.

But after an exciting run to the 2022 NLCS, the Padres fell flat last season and, in a major cost-cutting move, sent Soto to the New York Yankees on Wednesday in another blockbuster trade.

Was their original gamble worth it? And were they able to salvage at least some value out of the deal, even if they weren't able to win a World Series with Soto?

What the Padres received for Juan Soto

As the Padres attempt to rebuild their roster, they had a distinct need for pitching − especially after losing NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell and closer Josh Hader to free agency. The Soto trade addresses that need.

HOT STOVE UPDATES: MLB free agency: Ranking and tracking the top players available.

• Starting pitcher Michael King. After beginning last season in the Yankee bullpen, King moved into the rotation for nine late-season starts. He posted an impressive 2.23 ERA in 40 ⅓ innings as a starter (2.75 in 104 ⅔ overall). The 28-year-old righty projects as the Padres' No. 3 starter behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
• Swingman Jhony Brito. The right-hander, 25, also pulled double-duty with the Yanks last season, but seemed to be more effective out of the bullpen (1.43 ERA in 37 ⅔ IP vs. 6.32 ERA in 52 ⅔ IP as a starter).
• Pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. Pehaps the key to the deal, Thorpe, 23, was one of the better pitchers in the minors last season. He had a 2.52 ERA and struck out 182 batters over 139 ⅓ innings at High-A and Double-A. He'll likely start the year at Class AAA El Paso.
• Reliever Randy Vasquez. The 24-year-old righty had a 2.87 ERA in 37 ⅔ innings with the Yankees last season, including five starts.
• Catcher Kyle Higashioka. A very good defender behind the plate, Higashioka, 33, will likely share catching duties with Luis Campusano.
• Some salary relief by also sending outfielder Trent Grisham (who is likely to earn more than $4 million in his second year of arbitration) to the Yankees.

What the Padres gave up to get Juan Soto

San Diego had to part with four top prospects in August 2022 in order to land Soto and veteran first baseman Josh Bell from Washington. Yet he hit a disappointing .236 with six home runs in 228 plate appearances for them down the stretch.

Still, Soto's presence helped the Padres win a pair of playoff series (including an upset of the division champion Los Angeles Dodgers) before they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS.

For that one playoff appearance, here's who the Padres traded away:

• Shortstop CJ Abrams. In his age-22 season, Abrams hit .245 with 18 home runs and 47 stolen bases for the Nationals in 2023. He improved his OPS by over 100 points from his rookie season and looks like the Nats' long-term answer at short.
• Starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore. The left-hander, 24, has battled injury issues, but also looks like a foundation piece for the Nationals' future. He tossed 136 ⅓ innings over 27 starts last season, going 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA. Gore was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft and still retains that high upside, despite the command issues he's displayed so far in the majors.
• Outfield prospect Robert Hassell. The most advanced of the minor leaguers Washington received in the deal, Hassell, 22, broke a bone in his hand in the 2022 Arizona Fall League and saw his prospect status dimmed when he hit just .221/.324/.321 at Class A and AA this past season. He's currently the team's No. 8 prospect, according to MLB.com.
• Outfield prospect James Wood. The raw 6-6, 240-pounder has rapidly climbed the prospect ranks to reach Class AA last season before turning 21. He hit .262/.360/.520 over two minor league levels. He's currently the team's No. 2 prospect.
• Pitching prospect Jarlin Susana. The hard-throwing right-hander doesn't turn 20 until March. He had a 5.14 ERA with 62 strikeouts and 40 walks in 63 innings at Class AA Fredericksburg (Va.) last season. He's currently the team's No. 12 prospect.
• First baseman Luke Voit. The veteran finished the season with Washington and played in 22 games last year with the Mets.

What grade do the Padres get for their Juan Soto trades?

Looking at the amount of talent they gave up compared to what they received, the Padres get an overall grade of C-minus.

Of course, the team's financial landscape has certainly changed over the past 17 months with the death of principal owner Peter Seidler and their broadcast rights payments significantly reduced. Without those factors, it's possible the Padres might have attempted to make another playoff push with Soto before he's set to become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.

With Soto, the Padres missed the playoffs last year -- which significantly impacts their grade.

Forced to get what they could for Soto, the Padres addressed their greatest need -- getting at least two pitchers who will be part of their opening day roster. In addition, they landed a top pitching prospect with a fairly high upside who could reach the majors by 2025, if not sooner.